The United States may be weeks away from a major Bitcoin policy announcement. Fresh signals from the Bitcoin 2026 Conference indicate that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is moving closer to reality, while Senator Cynthia Lummis confirmed the Clarity Act is heading toward a May markup and could reach the president's desk shortly after.
"Big Move Coming" on Bitcoin Reserve
At the event, Patrick Witt revealed that a major announcement on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is expected within weeks, hinting at progress behind the scenes. "The president signed the strategic bitcoin reserve executive order… and we’ve been working on the legal and operational framework to get that right," Witt said. He added, "We believe we’re going to be able to take a big step forward from the executive branch side." The reserve, initiated under Donald Trump, is currently backed by Bitcoin already held by the government through seizures. Lawmakers are working to formalize the plan through an updated bill, now evolving into the American Reserves Modernization Act (ARMA), which proposes to accumulate up to 1 million BTC over five years using budget-neutral strategies.
Institutions Are Already Moving
While policy builds, market structure is also changing rapidly. Crypto analyst Jeff Park points to a shift in derivatives. For the first time, IBIT options have overtaken Deribit in open interest, marking a transition from crypto-native trading to institutional dominance. "DeVault is flawed… it only uses Deribit options," Park explained, noting that traditional models no longer capture the full picture. A standout signal is the volatility spread: IBIT’s implied volatility is about five points higher than offshore exchanges, suggesting strong demand for long-term upside exposure. Park’s view is clear: "We’re going to see a big Bitcoin move up… led by IBIT options."
Two Forces, Same Direction
What’s unfolding is a rare alignment. On one side, governments are building long-term Bitcoin positions. On the other, institutions are reshaping how the market trades. As Park noted, "Watching IBIT take market share… shows we’re heading in the right direction." With both policy clarity and institutional demand building simultaneously, Bitcoin’s next move may already be taking shape beneath the surface.
