Bitcoin's recent price decline may be driven more by macroeconomic recession fears than crypto-specific weakness, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise's Head of Research for Europe. In a social media analysis, Dragosch argued that Bitcoin appears to be pricing in a potential deep U.S. recession. He suggested that if such a downturn fails to materialize, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant rebound, representing one of the largest macro mispricings in its history.
Dragosch estimates that roughly 90% of Bitcoin's historical performance can be explained by broad economic forces like growth expectations, global liquidity, and monetary policy. He noted Bitcoin's current sensitivity to macro developments has increased again, coinciding with weakness in software equities. The analyst pointed to residuals between forward-looking economic indicators and Bitcoin's implied growth pricing, stating the current gap is even more pronounced than during the COVID-19 recession in 2020.
Part of the recent divergence may stem from a "quantum discount" narrative, where long-term holder selling and speculation about future quantum-resistant cryptography are weighing on valuation. Dragosch observed Bitcoin's relative underperformance compared to Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which is perceived to have a clearer near-term roadmap for quantum resilience. He estimates markets could be assigning as much as a 25% probability to quantum-related risk, whereas a more realistic discount would be closer to 5%.
Concurrently, on-chain data reveals sovereign selling pressure. Wallet clusters attributed to the Royal Government of Bhutan have reduced their Bitcoin balance to roughly 5,600–5,700 BTC, down from a peak of 13,295 BTC in October 2025. The drawdown appears methodical, with recent activity including a 184 BTC transfer and a $6.7 million deposit to QCP Capital. Historically, flows linked to Bhutan have appeared in approximately $50 million clips.
The near-term market impact of such sovereign activity hinges on the size relative to daily BTC liquidity and whether transfers convert into executed sales. Movements to custodians or OTC partners are treated as potential, not confirmed, supply until settlement is evidenced. This selling pressure is contextualized by Standard Chartered's recent downside scenario, which warned Bitcoin could drop toward $50,000–$52,000 if it breaks below roughly $60,000, citing softer spot ETF inflows, institutional profit-taking, and reduced corporate treasury support.
Dragosch emphasized that macroeconomic signals are not uniformly negative, citing upward trends in industrial commodities, U.S. ISM data, Germany's Ifo survey, and Taiwanese semiconductor exports. He also highlighted that the BTC-to-gold ratio sits near levels that historically signal dislocation, which he views as another potential sign of Bitcoin undervaluation. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $67,591, approximately 46% below its all-time high of $126,000 from October of the previous year.
