In a significant downward revision of its cryptocurrency outlook, banking giant Standard Chartered has warned that digital asset prices could face further declines in the coming months. The bank's head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, stated in a report shared on Thursday that the market is likely to see "more pain and a final capitulation period" before a recovery later in 2026.
Kendrick now forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to $50,000 or just below, with Ethereum (ETH) potentially dropping to $1,400, before a market bottom is reached. Following this expected low, the bank has set revised year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum. This marks a further reduction from previous forecasts; Bitcoin's year-end target was lowered from $150,000 (itself a cut from $300,000 in December), and Ethereum's was reduced from $7,500.
The bearish near-term outlook is attributed to two primary factors. First, Kendrick points to the behavior of Bitcoin ETF investors, noting that holdings have declined by nearly 100,000 BTC since their peak in October 2025. With the average buyer sitting on unrealized losses after purchasing near $90,000, investors are more likely to sell than buy in the near term. Second, challenging macro conditions are weighing on sentiment. Kendrick cited mixed U.S. economic data and the market's expectation that interest rate cuts will not occur until after a potential leadership change at the Federal Reserve in June, making it harder for crypto to attract new inflows.
The bank also downgraded its end-2026 forecasts for several major altcoins: Solana (SOL) to $135 (from $250), XRP to $2.80 (from $8.00), BNB to $1,050 (from $1,755), and Avalanche (AVAX) to $18 (from $100). Kendrick described these as "mostly mark-to-market forecast changes to bring relative movements in line with BTC and ETH."
Despite the grim short-term predictions, Kendrick emphasized that the broader long-term outlook remains intact and the current downturn appears less severe than previous crypto cycles. He noted the absence of major platform collapses, suggesting the market is becoming more resilient as institutional participation grows. "Once the lows have been reached, we expect the asset class to recover for the rest of 2026," he concluded.