Dogecoin (DOGE) has broken below a critical support level at $0.095, a zone it had defended since February 2024, sparking increased downside pressure and bearish sentiment across the market. The price dropped 4.5% and was trading near $0.089 at the time of reporting, with traders now closely watching the $0.088 level as the next key near-term support.
Technical damage is evident on the daily chart, with the breakdown of the long-held $0.095 support signaling a potential shift in market structure. Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish case; the Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 51.33, a level above 50 confirming a powerful directional trend currently favoring sellers. Analysis suggests that if DOGE fails to reclaim $0.095, a further decline of up to 35% toward the next major support near $0.05710 becomes likely.
Despite the sell-off, trading activity remains robust, with a 11% increase in 24-hour volume to $845 million, indicating traders are actively engaging with the volatility. Derivative markets reveal a clear bearish bias, with short positions outweighing longs. Data from CoinGlass shows approximately $14.46 million backing short exposure compared to $8.26 million for longs, creating an imbalance that tilts pressure toward further downside. Key liquidation clusters are forming around $0.0888 on the downside and $0.0948 on the upside, levels that now define the near-term directional battleground.
However, a broader perspective offers a contrasting view. On the monthly timeframe, DOGE continues to trade within a long-term Historical Bottom Channel, an ascending structure that has provided support since 2015. The current price of $0.09037 sits just above the immediate channel support at $0.09032, following a 3.4% daily decline. This positions DOGE at a potential inflection point between long-term structural support and short-term bearish breakdown.
The immediate trading range is compressed between support at $0.09032 and resistance at $0.09395. A failure to hold the $0.088-$0.09032 zone could trigger cascading liquidations and accelerate selling, while a sharp rebound above $0.0948 could squeeze the crowded short positions, leading to a rapid reversal. Dogecoin now stands at a pivotal moment, with its short-term path likely to be determined by the battle for these critical support levels.
