Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) saw its stock price jump more than 15% in after-hours trading following the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, which exceeded Wall Street expectations. The electric vehicle maker reported Q4 revenue of $1.29 billion, beating estimates of $1.26 billion, and an adjusted loss per share of 54 cents, which was better than the anticipated loss of 68 cents per share.
The company achieved a significant milestone in 2025 by posting its first annual gross profit of $144 million. This profit was notably supported by a $432 million contribution from its software and services joint venture with Volkswagen, which helped offset losses in its core automotive business. For the full year 2025, Rivian's revenue reached $5.39 billion, an 8% increase from 2024, while its net loss improved to $3.6 billion from $4.75 billion the previous year.
Investor enthusiasm was particularly fueled by Rivian's ambitious 2026 delivery guidance. The company forecasts it will deliver between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles this year, representing growth of 47% to 59% compared to 2025. This projected surge is heavily dependent on the successful launch and ramp-up of its new, more affordable R2 SUV, which is priced around $45,000 and is slated to begin customer deliveries in the second quarter of 2026.
CEO RJ Scaringe described 2026 as an "inflection point" for the company, with the R2 expected to constitute the "majority of the volume" by the end of 2027. The vehicle is designed to cut build material costs in half and reduce production complexity. Production will commence with one shift at its Normal, Illinois factory, with a second shift planned by the end of 2026.
Financially, Rivian expects adjusted pre-tax losses of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion in 2026 as it invests heavily in the R2 rollout, with capital expenditures forecast between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion. The company ended Q4 with total liquidity of $6.59 billion, including nearly $6.1 billion in cash and short-term investments.
However, analysts at UBS struck a cautious note, upgrading the stock only to "neutral" with a price target of $16. Analyst Joseph Spak highlighted significant "execution risk" associated with the R2 launch, noting that Rivian needs to deliver roughly 45,000 units in the second half of 2026 alone to meet its target. He expressed skepticism about near-term profitability, pointing out that 2025's gross profit was propped up by non-core items like regulatory credits and the Volkswagen JV revenue. UBS remains wary of the ongoing cash burn and a "softer EV market" where the expiration of federal tax credits has dampened consumer demand.
