Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization after weeks of volatility, raising the question across the crypto market of whether the recent price crash is finally ending. Recent chart patterns suggest the market may be entering a short-term recovery phase, although longer-term risks remain.
Technical analyst Gareth Soloway noted that Bitcoin recorded a healthy rebound in recent sessions, forming a classic consolidation pattern after a small upward move. This structure, often described as a "bull flag," occurs when price rises, pauses within a narrow range, and then attempts another upward push. Such formations often lead to short-term rallies. The current chart structure shows Bitcoin holding steady rather than dropping sharply, indicating that selling pressure has slowed.
If the current pattern plays out, Bitcoin could stage a relief rally toward the $80,000 region, with an extended upside potentially reaching $85,000, where strong historical resistance is expected. This zone represents an area where many investors previously sold, which could again create selling pressure. Even if the market rallies into this region, it does not automatically confirm the start of a long-term bull run; it would represent a recovery phase following the recent decline.
While short-term charts show improving conditions, longer-timeframe technical patterns still suggest broader downside risks if resistance zones remain unbroken. A large head-and-shoulders structure, often associated with extended declines, remains visible on higher-timeframe charts. If this pattern eventually completes, deeper downside levels — potentially even toward the $35,000 range — cannot be ruled out. Because of this uncertainty, many long-term investors are gradually accumulating positions instead of trying to predict the exact market bottom.
Bitcoin's technical structure remains bearish, trading below its key trend benchmarks. The 30-day Simple Moving Average is ~$82,200 and the 200-day SMA is ~$101,300, with a negative MACD histogram indicating sustained bearish pressure. However, short-term momentum indicators show signs of exhaustion. The 14-day RSI at 29.45 sits in oversold territory — a level that historically precedes short-term bounces. Key Fibonacci levels define the near-term battleground with support near $68,165 and major resistance (38.2% retracement) near $83,400.
Sentiment data adds a critical dimension. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 8, matching its yearly low and firmly in "Extreme Fear" territory. Historically, such readings often coincide with late-stage corrective phases when selling pressure approaches exhaustion. The Altcoin Season Index has risen 36% over the past week but remains neutral at 30, suggesting capital has not yet aggressively rotated into higher-risk assets. Bitcoin dominance holds steady near 58.5%, reinforcing BTC's role as the market's primary liquidity anchor.
Market sentiment across the crypto sector has been relatively weak in recent weeks, and historically such bearish conditions sometimes appear near short-term turning points. Several major altcoins, including Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, are also showing small recovery patterns, supporting the idea that the broader crypto market may be entering a temporary rebound phase.
For a powerful relief rally to materialize, several factors must align: stabilization above $68,160 support, improvement in sentiment metrics, renewed institutional capital inflows, and a reclaim of the 30-day SMA near $82K. Without these confirmations, rallies risk fading into the broader corrective structure. At present, the Bitcoin crash does not appear fully resolved, but early recovery signals are becoming visible. For a stronger recovery outlook, Bitcoin must successfully break above major resistance zones and hold those levels over time.
