XRP is navigating a critical technical juncture, with analysts warning of a potential final price drop to as low as $0.65 before any major reversal can begin. The cryptocurrency recently bounced from lows near $1.16 but remains below the key resistance level of $1.56, showing short-term bullish momentum. Price peaked above $2.40 in late January before a sharp reversal began.
Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has outlined a "Max Pain" scenario, suggesting market makers may engineer a final sweep of lower liquidity levels. The analysis points to three critical, untouched exchange lows: KuCoin at $1.08 (XRP/USDT), Bitfinex at $1.00 (XRP/USD), and the most aggressive potential sweep at $0.77 on Binance Perpetual contracts. The analyst emphasizes that these sweeps often complete before major reversals, with a projected final target zone of $0.75 to $0.65. This range aligns with macro green uptrend support and would keep the larger bullish ascending triangle pattern valid.
Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The MACD shows a bullish crossover, confirming rising buying pressure and signaling a potential relief rally or trend shift. However, both MACD lines remain in negative territory, suggesting momentum is fragile. The RSI has moved up sharply, indicating stronger buying pressure returning after an oversold bounce. The CCI indicator also flashes high positive readings, showing force behind the recent rebound. Despite this, price sits below the middle Bollinger Band at $1.56, which now acts as resistance, with the lower band at $1.16 marking recent support.
EGRAG CRYPTO outlines two potential forward paths. The bull path involves a quick sweep of lower levels followed by a violent reclaim. The alternative "pain path" suggests a slower bleed toward the $0.75 to $0.65 target before a reversal materializes. The analyst's framework, based on historical Super Guppy indicator patterns and an average 45% retracement from previous cycles, supports this bearish short-term projection.
This technical uncertainty unfolds against a backdrop of mixed fundamental developments. Ripple executives reportedly met with SWIFT behind closed doors on February 14, sparking speculation of a cross-border payments partnership. Furthermore, during Ripple's Community Day event, the team outlined a 2026 roadmap that includes regulated products like ETFs and wrapped XRP.
Key price levels to watch this week are $1.60 as a major ceiling and $1.40-$1.45 as critical support. A break above $1.60 could target $1.75 and then $1.95, while a fall below $1.40 could see a slide back toward $1.20, $1.10, and potentially $0.80. Analysts warn that those unable to handle volatility down to the $0.75-$0.65 zone may not be built for the eventual anticipated upside.
