Bitcoin is on track for its worst first-quarter performance since the 2018 bear market, with a 22.3% decline since the start of the year. The asset began 2026 trading around $87,700 and has fallen to lows near $68,000, putting it on pace for its most significant Q1 loss in eight years. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has declined in seven of the past thirteen first quarters, with the largest historical drop being 49.7% in 2018.
Analyst Daan Trades Crypto noted, "The first quarter of the year is known for its volatile nature... whatever happens in Q1 does not generally translate over further down the line, according to the historical price action." Bitcoin is also poised for its first-ever consecutive monthly losses in January and February, having shed 10.2% in January and 13.4% so far in February. It needs to reclaim $80,000 to avoid a red February.
The broader crypto market is experiencing a severe downturn. At press time, Bitcoin traded near $68,200, down nearly 3% over 24 hours, while assets like Ether (ETH), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) registered larger losses. Losses affected 85 of the top 100 tokens by market cap, with privacy coins Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC) down 10% and 8%, respectively. The CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index fell nearly 6%, pushing its year-to-date drop to 28%.
This market weakness is particularly notable given recent positive macroeconomic data. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth slowed to 2.4% year-on-year in January, reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.05%. Bitcoin briefly rallied from $66,800 to over $70,000 over the weekend but failed to sustain gains.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus exchange, attributed the struggle to selective demand: "Risk appetite stayed selective and macro cross-currents kept traders defensive. In derivatives, the market continues to behave as if it is ‘de-leveraging first, asking questions later.’" Nick Ruck of LVRG Research framed the decline as a "regular correctional phase rather than a structural breakdown," citing Bitcoin's historical resilience and institutional adoption trends.
Traders are now focused on a packed week of macroeconomic data, including the minutes from the January Fed meeting and the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Analysts like Dessislava Laneva of Nexo will monitor this for confirmation of moderating price pressures. Additionally, a potential shift in the Japanese yen's strength, which has hit a record positive correlation with Bitcoin, is seen as a key catalyst for future bullish momentum.
