Gold is demonstrating near-term strength against Bitcoin, with analysts noting a significant break in the long-term BTC/XAU (Bitcoin to gold) ratio trend. This shift suggests a period where defensive assets like gold may hold a relative advantage over risk-on assets like Bitcoin, particularly during times of fragile market sentiment and elevated safe-haven demand.
The debate centers on whether the reported break of a multi-year uptrend in the BTC/XAU ratio signals a durable phase of gold leadership. Analyst Willy Woo warned that "a 12-year valuation trend has broken." This perspective is echoed by commentators like Peter Schiff, who views Bitcoin as remaining in a stealth bear market versus gold into 2026, and Bloomberg's Mike McGlone, who highlights gold's potential for near-term outperformance.
Institutional analysis presents a more nuanced picture. JPMorgan's research argues that Bitcoin appears undervalued relative to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis. This is due to BTC's six-month rolling volatility compressing toward 30% by mid-2025, narrowing its historic gap with bullion and potentially lifting its relative fair value in risk-adjusted allocation models.
Concurrently, a notable $191 million in open interest has accumulated around deep out-of-the-money Bitcoin put options with a $20,000 strike price for a mid-2026 expiry. Market analysts clarify that this $20K figure is not a gold price target but a key Bitcoin derivatives positioning level. These deep puts are typically used for tail-risk hedging and long-volatility trades, reflecting investor demand for crash protection amid macroeconomic uncertainty rather than a direct forecast for Bitcoin's spot price.
This options activity steepens downside skew, raising the cost of crash protection and can amplify short-term volatility. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $67,944, below its 50-day ($84,596) and 200-day ($100,745) simple moving averages, with a 14-day RSI of 37.24 and market sentiment screened as Bearish.
