In a detailed market analysis released on February 16, 2026, cryptocurrency asset research firm Matrixport issued a cautionary report highlighting key technical indicators that may signal Bitcoin is transitioning into a bear market. The firm's analysis centers on the frequency and magnitude of price declines within 30-day windows.
Matrixport's core finding is that repeated, sharp price drops of more than 20% within a 30-day period are historically rare during bull markets but become a common feature of bear markets. The company argues that the increasing frequency of such large short-term pullbacks can serve as a critical gauge for determining whether the market's underlying structure is weakening.
The report provides further context, noting that market momentum has been deteriorating since mid-2025. According to Matrixport's analysis of 30-day rate-of-change data, the peaks achieved during upward price movements have been forming at progressively lower levels. This pattern suggests a consistent decline in buying-side pressure and overall bullish momentum.
While acknowledging that bear markets are a natural and cyclical phase that often set the stage for subsequent recoveries, Matrixport cautioned investors against expecting a straightforward decline. The analysis notes that "bear markets are not usually a one-way decline, and strong interim rallies can be seen even within a major downtrend."
The firm concluded by advising a disciplined investment approach, urging market participants to adapt their strategies to changing conditions and seek out opportunities with more favorable risk-reward profiles.
