Bitwise and Arca CIOs Outline 2026 Crypto Outlook: Ethereum and Solana Poised for Records, DeFi and Tokenization to Drive Growth

Feb 17, 2026, 11:36 a.m. 3 sources positive

Key takeaways:

  • Institutional ETF demand could structurally lower Bitcoin's volatility versus tech stocks, altering its risk profile.
  • Regulatory clarity on stablecoins may disproportionately benefit Ethereum and Solana over other Layer 1 networks.
  • DeFi protocols with aggressive token buybacks, like Pump.Fun, present a new model for direct value accrual independent of broader market cycles.

In a series of bullish commentaries, chief investment officers from two major crypto asset managers have laid out an optimistic vision for the cryptocurrency market in 2026, highlighting specific altcoins and sectors poised for significant growth.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that despite volatility and price pullbacks in 2025, a bull market will prevail towards the end of 2026, driven by institutional adoption, regulatory advancements, and strong fundamental trends. Hougan predicts Bitcoin will break its traditional four-year cycle and reach new all-time highs, with its volatility potentially becoming lower than that of technology stocks like Nvidia. He argued that institutional demand through ETFs will absorb more than the entire new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

Hougan placed particular emphasis on the potential impact of regulatory clarity. He stated that "if regulatory clarity laws like the CLARITY Act are passed, Ethereum and Solana will reach new highs", positioning them as the primary beneficiaries of the stablecoin and tokenization megatrends. Furthermore, he expects over 100 crypto-related ETFs to launch in the United States.

Meanwhile, Arca CIO Jeff Dorman, speaking on the Milk Road Show, provided a counter-narrative to recent market fears. He explained that Bitcoin's recent price drop was caused by large Wall Street funds pulling money out across all markets, not by crypto-native selling, noting that platforms like Deribit and Binance remained relatively calm. Dorman also challenged the popular four-year cycle theory, arguing it is based on just two examples (2018 and 2022) that were triggered by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, not internal crypto dynamics.

Dorman identified three crypto sectors demonstrating real, measurable growth independent of Bitcoin's price action:

1. Decentralized Finance (DeFi): This sector is seeing increased users, total value locked (TVL), and trading volume shifting from centralized exchanges. Protocols like Hyperliquid and Pump.Fun are generating substantial revenue and using it to buy back their own tokens.

2. Stablecoins: Transaction volume hit a staggering $10 trillion in January 2026 alone, with major traditional finance players like JP Morgan, Citi, and PayPal entering the space with their own products.

3. Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization: Dorman highlighted this as having the biggest long-term potential, with roughly $600 trillion in off-chain assets and only about $1 trillion tokenized so far. Institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Apollo are actively building in this area.

Dorman emphasized the importance of token buybacks as a mechanism for value accrual, citing Pump.Fun's model where 99% of its roughly $500 million in daily revenue is used to buy back tokens, theoretically repurchasing the entire supply in under 3.5 years.

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