Research and brokerage firm K33 has published an analysis suggesting Bitcoin's current market structure resembles the final stages of the 2022 bear market, indicating a higher probability of prolonged sideways trading than a sharp short-term surge. According to a report by K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde, the firm's proprietary "regime indicator," which incorporates macroeconomic data, derivatives yields, open interest, ETF flows, and the US yield curve, shows "strikingly strong similarities" to the period between September and November 2022—a time that coincided with the global bottom of the 2022 decline.
Lunde noted that while a bottom formed then, it was followed by a long period of low-yielding consolidation. The report highlights that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 28% since January, with defensive positioning prevalent in derivatives markets. Key findings include funding rates being negative for 11 consecutive days, aggregate open interest falling below 260,000 BTC, and investors closing long positions. K33 argues that this reduced leverage lowers the risk of sharp "squeeze" movements. The model, which places the greatest weight on derivative data, does not support the possibility of a rapid recovery despite similarities to a bottoming pattern. K33's outlook suggests Bitcoin could trade between $60,000 and $75,000 for an extended period, advising investors to be patient.
Other critical data points include a 59% weekly drop in spot trading volumes, futures open interest at four-month lows, and normalized volatility. On the institutional side, CME trading remained weak, while Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) have seen a record outflow of 103,113 BTC since October. K33 emphasized that a bottoming fear index alone is not a strong rally signal, concluding that a recovery may take considerable time.
Concurrently, Bitcoin's price action manifested this cautious outlook, with the leading cryptocurrency breaking below the crucial $67,000 support level. Real-time data showed BTC trading at $66,881.96 on Binance's USDT pairing, marking a notable retreat. Technical indicators flashed warnings, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching oversold territory and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) charts showing bearish crossovers. On-chain data revealed moderate increases in Bitcoin moving to exchanges, often a precursor to selling, while 'whale' wallets displayed mixed behavior between accumulation and distribution.
The decline occurred amid broader financial market weakness, regulatory uncertainty, and thinning liquidity. Order book data indicated significant sell walls above $68,000, with buy support clustering around $65,000 and $63,000. The wider crypto market followed suit, with Ethereum (ETH) down ~4.2% and Solana (SOL) falling ~6.8%, though some DeFi sectors showed relative strength.
