Bitcoin is testing a critical long-term technical level as on-chain and derivatives metrics align with historical signals of a maturing bear market. The asset's price is approaching its 4-year Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near $57,500, a zone that has marked the end of prior bear cycles in 2014–2015, 2018–2019, and 2022–2023.
Analyst Darkfost notes the current market structure closely resembles past late bear phases, with Bitcoin returning to the model's "green value zone." Historically, this zone has signaled a shift from forced selling to quiet accumulation. However, valuation metrics alone cannot confirm a bottom.
Key on-chain signals are strengthening the case for a potential bottoming phase. Realized loss data shows recent spikes, with daily losses reaching billions of dollars during market drops, often indicative of capitulation. Notably, selling pressure appears weaker despite these large loss numbers, a pattern typical of a late bear phase.
In derivatives markets, total Bitcoin open interest has fallen sharply. CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn highlights a deleveraging event, with open interest sliced by more than half from $45.5 billion to $21.7 billion, including a 27% drop in the last week alone. He describes this as "a major wash out of speculative excess" necessary for a sustainable bottom.
Holder behavior provides further evidence. Supply held by long-term holders (coins held for at least 155 days) remains elevated, pointing to accumulation rather than distribution. Meanwhile, short-term holders are under significant stress. The short-term holder MVRV ratio sits at 0.72, implying an average loss of about 28% for this cohort—the lowest level since the July 2022 bottom and a band historically aligned with maximum financial pain.
Maartunn also points to structural selling pressure from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen an $8.2 billion drawdown from peak holdings, the largest on record. The current price is roughly 17% below the average buying price for ETF holders, creating persistent sell pressure.
The analyst frames the current price action as a retest of a major support cluster, where the previous cycle's all-time high intersects an older trading range. From a time perspective, prior bear-market durations suggest a broad bottoming window between June and December 2026, with the last two cycles clustering most tightly between September and November.
The consensus among analysts is that a confirmed bottom is more likely to be a grind than a snapback. Maartunn emphasizes that a real market bottom is often marked by apathy—low social media engagement and general disinterest. While the structure no longer resembles early bear territory and appears to be a mature compression phase, broader liquidity conditions may still influence the timing, and consolidation could persist before any sustained expansion emerges.
