Spot gold has decisively reclaimed the $5,000 per ounce threshold, trading around $5,005 on February 18, and extending an advance that accelerated in the U.S. trading session. This move has exerted significant pressure on the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio, which fell toward 13.46, marking weekly lows. This decline means one Bitcoin now buys fewer ounces of gold than it did just days ago, when the ratio was above 13.9.
The technical posture for gold remains strong, with the price holding above medium- and long-term moving averages. This strength has caused the BTC/XAU ratio to weaken across both intraday and higher time frames. The divergence carries narrative weight, as Bitcoin has long been positioned as a digital alternative to gold. The current dynamic suggests investors are favoring the traditional safe-haven asset, even if Bitcoin holds steady in U.S. dollar terms.
Amid this backdrop, veteran trader Peter Brandt offered a contrasting forecast. While acknowledging Bitcoin "may go up" for a short-term rebound, he rejected claims of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern forming, criticizing the "level of incompetence about classical charting principles" on social media. Brandt, who previously forecast a Bitcoin correction to at least $58,000, maintains a cautious near-term view.
Conversely, Brandt presented a bearish outlook for gold, stating it has completed a corrective rising wedge pattern that signals downside risk. He projected an initial test toward $4,430 per ounce, with a potential further decline to $4,000. Despite this forecast, current market data shows increased bullish positioning in COMEX gold futures, with traders accumulating long-dated call options.
Market analysis from Matrixport adds context, noting that Bitcoin dominance has rebounded to around 58% but capital is not clearly rotating back into Bitcoin for strong upside momentum. The firm observed that parts of the broader crypto market are showing relative resilience, and some investors may be reassessing Bitcoin's leadership position, compounded by recent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows.
