Analysts are pointing to key Bitcoin on-chain metrics that are flashing signals reminiscent of historic market bottoms, suggesting the current bearish momentum may be losing steam. CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn highlighted the trend in the Bitcoin Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), an indicator tracking BTC flows between spot and derivatives exchanges.
The IFP has been in a bearish phase since a reversal in 2025, remaining below its 90-day moving average—a signal historically associated with bear markets or corrections. However, the analyst notes the indicator's value is now "starting to flatten out" into a sideways trajectory. Maartunn stated, "A shift here could signal changing capital flows. Watch this metric closely in the coming weeks." Historically, similar patterns in 2018 and 2022 saw the IFP flatten at market bottoms before reversing upwards.
Concurrently, data from Checkonchain reveals another extreme signal. The Short-Term Holder (STH) Bollinger Band metric, which measures the gap between Bitcoin's spot price and the average cost basis of recent buyers (holders of less than 155 days), has fallen into its deepest oversold territory since the 2018 bear market bottom. This oscillator piercing the lower band signals Bitcoin is trading significantly below what recent buyers paid, a condition that has historically aligned with macro bottoms.
For context, a similar oversold print in late 2018 preceded a roughly 150% rally within a year and a staggering 1,900% price increase over three years. The signal also flashed ahead of the November 2022 bottom, which was followed by a 700% rally to a record high near $126,270.
Adding to the bottoming thesis, Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon cited in a CNBC note that larger-than-usual US tax refunds in 2026 could inject as much as $150 billion into equities and Bitcoin by the end of March, potentially reviving risk appetite and absorbing sell pressure. At the time of the reports, Bitcoin was trading around $67,300, up 1.3% over the previous week.
