Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone has presented a statistical analysis suggesting Bitcoin (BTC) could face a significant correction toward the $28,000 level. McGlone's chart indicates that while Bitcoin's mean price since 2023 sits near $66,000, the mode—the most frequently traded price—is materially lower, around $28,000. This statistical clustering implies the market has spent more time trading far below current levels than above them.
McGlone introduces the concept of a "reverse wealth effect," where cooling equity valuations and tightening household balance sheets reduce speculative appetite. He argues that a drop in crypto prices may signal broader economic contraction rather than being an isolated event, challenging the notion of Bitcoin as an uncorrelated hedge. His analysis highlights a strong correlation between Bitcoin and technology stocks, with forward returns heavily dependent on sustained equity market expansion.
Concurrently, Bitcoin continues to struggle against the $70,000 resistance level, trading around $68,300 as of February 18. Market maker Wintermute Trading, in a series of X updates, describes BTC as "firmly rangebound" between $60,000 and $70,000, lacking a structural bid strong enough for a decisive breakout.
Macroeconomic pressures are identified as key headwinds. A stronger-than-expected January jobs report, with unemployment dropping to 4.3%, crushed rate cut expectations and triggered ETF outflows. Although a subsequent soft CPI print of 2.4% year-on-year sparked a relief rally, Wintermute noted it "lacked the conviction needed to shift the broader narrative," with ETF flows remaining under pressure.
The market is further complicated by a rotation out of high-growth tech and AI exposures into cyclicals, industrials, and value stocks. As the highest-beta asset in the growth spectrum, crypto absorbs disproportionate pressure from this shift. Wintermute links the surface trigger to U.S. fiscal year 2025 earnings and Anthropic's Opus 4.6 announcement, but identifies the core force as stretched tech valuations prompting a market redistribution.
Technically, Bitcoin has found support near its 200-week moving average, a level Wintermute flags as historically where bear market bottoms tend to form. However, the firm's overall assessment is cautious: positioning is light, conviction is absent, and every rally is being sold into. The "higher-for-longer" interest rate narrative and Federal Reserve uncertainty act as persistent headwinds.
Wintermute concludes that overcoming the $70,000 wall and achieving a recovery into the second half of 2026 "requires patience that most participants have already run out of."
