Two major central banks are navigating divergent but cautious monetary policy paths, with significant implications for their respective economies and, indirectly, the global financial environment that cryptocurrencies operate within.
In Nigeria, Standard Chartered's latest analysis indicates a potential turning point for Africa's largest economy. The report reveals a slowing inflation trajectory that now supports cautious monetary easing after years of restrictive policy. Nigeria's consumer price index dropped to 28.2% in February 2025 from a peak of 31.7% in October 2024, marking four consecutive months of decline. Foreign exchange reserves have stabilized above $35 billion, and the naira has maintained relative stability. Key factors include agricultural output recovery easing food prices, targeted fiscal interventions, and improved crude oil production.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintained its Monetary Policy Rate at 24.75% throughout 2024 following aggressive tightening cycles. However, Standard Chartered economists, including Africa economist Razia Khan, project that initial easing measures could begin in the second quarter of 2025, likely starting with reduced Cash Reserve Requirements before potential rate adjustments. The bank cautions that easing should proceed gradually, contingent on sustained inflation moderation.
Conversely, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is signaling a significant pause in its anticipated interest-rate easing cycle. Under newly appointed Governor Sarah Breman, the bank confronts persistently firm inflation, with core metrics remaining above its 1-3% target band. The latest data shows headline CPI inflation at 3.4% and core inflation (trimmed mean) at 3.8%, driven by resilient services inflation and non-tradable goods prices.
This policy shift represents a substantial recalibration from earlier market expectations of a series of 2025 rate cuts. Governor Breman, drawing on her experience at the International Monetary Fund, must prioritize price stability, delaying stimulus. The RBNZ's decision aligns with a broader global trend where major central banks like the Federal Reserve have slowed easing cycles. Economists from ANZ Research and Westpac have revised forecasts, now predicting the first Official Cash Rate (OCR) cut may not occur until Q3 2025, highlighting a "higher for longer" risk.
The pause carries immediate consequences: mortgage holders face prolonged higher debt costs, business investment may be delayed, and the New Zealand dollar could strengthen, affecting exporters. The RBNZ's updated Monetary Policy Statement will provide crucial new projections, with Governor Breman's communication strategy being critical to managing market expectations and maintaining credibility.
