A revised Bitcoin cycle framework is drawing attention as a market technician details where BTC sits within its broader structural progression. The assessment maintains that price has not transitioned into a bottoming phase. Instead, the market is positioned within a transitional range that typically develops before a deeper accumulation zone forms. Based on this structure, the next accumulation phase is projected to begin below $40,000.
The analyst's breakdown maps the full cycle from the 2022 bear market lows near $16,000. It identifies the current phase as redistribution, which forms after a breakdown and is characterized by sideways price action with underlying seller control. Volume dynamics show contracting participation, signaling limited demand conviction. This phase is expected to resolve with an additional downward leg before a durable floor forms, with the projected destination below $40,000, where conditions for true accumulation—prolonged consolidation and long-term demand absorption—may begin.
In contrast, other analysts point to key on-chain metrics flashing signals that Bitcoin may have already found its cycle low near $60,000. According to data, Bitcoin's short-term Sharpe Ratio fell to -38, a level historically seen at major cycle bottoms in 2015, 2019, and late 2022, suggesting maximum seller exhaustion.
Furthermore, Bitcoin's Stock to Flow Ratio (SFR) rose to a new all-time high of 261, indicating massively declining supply and high holder conviction. The MVRV Z-Score also dropped to 2023 lows, around $0.445, suggesting BTC is well below its historical cost basis, a condition that often precedes a wealth transfer from weak to strong hands and a market recovery.
Despite these bullish signals, near-term market structure remains weak. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 32, nearing oversold territory, and the DMI trend has held a downtrend for 30 consecutive days. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $66,988, down 1.75% on the day and 46% from its all-time high of $126,000.
