An analyst from UniCredit has calculated that Bitcoin's fair value should be around $75,000, but warns that the cryptocurrency faces a risk of further decline due to weakening market sentiment and macroeconomic pressures. Thomas Strobel, the UniCredit analyst, stated that while concerns about U.S. regulations have diminished, the recent price drop primarily reflects deteriorating investor sentiment and downward pressure from broader economic factors.
Strobel cautioned that if Bitcoin falls approximately 35% from current levels and sustains a price below $50,000 for an extended period, it could signal a deeper shift into a bear market. He noted that a recovery for BTC is possible but would require a combination of improved investor sentiment, increased inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and expanding market liquidity.
Concurrently, technical analysis from professional trader Koroush highlights a critical short-term support level for Bitcoin at $65,800. He explains that in the current downward trend, a break below this level could lead to accelerated selling momentum, with the next major support target near $55,000—a level dating back to August 2024 price action.
The trader pointed to signs of weakening momentum, noting that recent price action has become choppy and sideways, a departure from the aggressive surges seen in previous bull cycles after breaking major resistance levels. The market is now at a decision point: a break below $65,800 increases the probability of a test of $55,000, while a strong bounce above resistance could signal a potential trend reversal.
