Bitcoin has recorded its worst performance in the first 50 days of any calendar year since its inception, with a year-to-date decline of 23% as of February 20, 2026. According to data from Checkonchain and Coinglass, the asset fell 10% in January and a further 15% in February, marking the first time Bitcoin has ever posted consecutive monthly declines to start a year.
Historical patterns have been shattered. While Bitcoin experienced double-digit January declines in years like 2015, 2016, and 2018, it historically rebounded with positive gains each following February. The consecutive losses in 2026 break this long-standing corrective pattern. If the losses hold, Bitcoin is also on track for its weakest consecutive monthly performance since 2022.
A key technical indicator underscores the severity of the slump. The current index reading for the first 50 days of the year sits at 0.77, which is notably below the typical bear market average of 0.84. This benchmark, used by traders to gauge cyclical drawdowns, suggests the current downturn possesses unique intensity.
The weakness also breaks a notable post-election cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to outperform in the year following a U.S. presidential election. However, following the 2024 election, Bitcoin fell approximately 17% in 2025, and the decline has accelerated into 2026. This deviation from historical norms suggests previous market drivers may be losing potency.
Analysts point to a confluence of factors for this anomalous start, including a changing regulatory landscape, Bitcoin's growing sensitivity to traditional macroeconomic indicators like interest rates and inflation, and potential shifts in long-term holder behavior. The record-breaking decline signals a potential structural transition for the cryptocurrency market.
