Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $1,960, consolidating within a tightening symmetrical triangle pattern as it approaches a decisive technical juncture. The asset is caught between key resistance at $2,100 and critical support at $1,850, with its next directional move hinging on a breakout from this structure.
Analysts are issuing stark warnings about potential downside. Max Shannon, a senior research associate at Bitwise, cautions that ETH risks a 22% crash to $1,500, which would mark its worst seven-month losing streak since 2018. Technical analyst Ted Pillows notes Ethereum is forming a bearish pennant structure, with a daily close below $1,850 likely confirming structural weakness and opening the door to lower cycle lows.
Despite the bearish setup, some signals suggest potential for a relief bounce. Analyst Mister Crypto points out that Ethereum has reached extremely oversold conditions on higher timeframes, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling potential selling exhaustion. Historically, such readings have preceded short-term bottom formations.
On-chain data provides a more constructive long-term narrative. Crypto Rover reports that over 30% of Ethereum's total supply is now staked, a record level of network participation. This reduces the liquid supply available on the market, which could strengthen long-term price conditions by tightening circulating supply. Analysts have clarified, however, that this figure represents 31% of the total supply actively staked, disputing earlier claims of a 50% milestone.
From a macro cycle perspective, analyst Axel Bitblaze compares current market behavior to historical fractals, suggesting Ethereum may be entering a late-stage downside phase that could precede a macro bottom formation, especially after losing the key 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
The immediate outlook remains uncertain. A decisive daily close above $2,100 is needed to invalidate the bearish structure and shift momentum towards a recovery, potentially targeting $2,400. Failure to hold support near $1,850, however, could trigger a move towards major demand zones between $1,700 and $1,500.
