Market analyst Timothy Peterson has presented a statistical model suggesting Bitcoin has an 88% historical probability of trading higher ten months from now. The analysis, shared via social media on February 21, 2026, is based on data tracing back to 2011.
Peterson's model examines rolling 24-month periods, specifically measuring how often forward returns were positive when exactly 50% of the preceding 24 months showed positive performance. According to his findings, this specific setup has historically implied an 88% chance that Bitcoin's price will be higher ten months later.
The analyst provided a concrete price target based on the average forward return observed under these conditions. The calculation, exp(60%) − 1 = 82%, when applied to current price levels, implies a potential move toward approximately $122,000.
Peterson emphasized that the key takeaway is probability, not certainty. An 88% historical success rate indicates favorable odds but does not constitute a guarantee. He acknowledged that Bitcoin remains highly volatile and that short-term macroeconomic conditions can override historical patterns. However, the dataset's strength lies in its duration, spanning over a decade and including multiple full market cycles, both bull and bear phases.
The framework is intended to shift focus away from short-term price noise and toward long-term statistical tendencies. The core conclusion is that when Bitcoin demonstrates sustained positive structure over a two-year period, forward momentum has historically followed, creating a probabilistic tilt in favor of higher prices in the subsequent ten months.
