Ripple's XRP token is flashing potential bullish signals following a significant price correction, with on-chain data and derivatives market activity suggesting a possible rebound. According to analytics firm Santiment, XRP has experienced its largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022, with losses reaching approximately -$1.93 billion. This spike occurred as the token's price declined roughly 70% from July 2025 to February 2026, falling from a high above $3.60 to around $1.11.
Analysts note that such extreme realized losses, where investors sell at a lower price than they paid, often coincide with market fear and capitulation. Santiment explained that "a wave of heavy realized loss can mean that much of the damage has already been done" and that these events frequently occur near market bottoms because "extreme fear tends to peak before price does." Historically, the last time XRP saw similar massive realized losses, the asset's price surged by 114% over the subsequent eight months. A repeat of this performance could push XRP's valuation above $3.00.
Concurrently, the XRP derivatives market is showing signs of renewed confidence. Data from CoinGlass reveals that over 1.66 billion XRP has been committed to unsettled futures contracts, marking a 2.56% increase in open interest over the last 24 hours. This surge in futures activity suggests heightened trader commitment. Following this, XRP's price saw a brief increase, reclaiming a weekly high around $1.45 and posting a 2.45% gain over 24 hours.
However, the broader institutional picture remains cautious. XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reported zero inflows or outflows in their last trading session, indicating that institutional investors are currently hesitant to participate amid ongoing market volatility. This mixed sentiment creates uncertainty about the timing and strength of a potential sustained price recovery for the altcoin.
