Weekly decentralized exchange (DEX) transactions have soared to a record 38.1 million, fueled predominantly by explosive growth in prediction markets. This milestone, recorded in mid-February 2026, signals that event-based trading has evolved from a niche segment into a dominant on-chain force. More than half of the total transaction volume originated from prediction platforms.
The surge is led by a fierce rivalry between two major players. Polymarket logged between 19.6 million and 22.58 million weekly transactions, slightly edging out its competitor Kalshi, which recorded approximately 17.4 million. Since early 2024, trading volumes across major prediction markets have expanded more than 130-fold, surpassing $13 billion in total. The sector's growth has broadened from political elections to include sports, macroeconomic policy decisions, and other global events, with a monthly turnover nearing $10 billion in November 2025 alone.
Institutional capital is pouring into the space, reflecting rising confidence. In late 2025, Polymarket secured backing from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at a $9 billion valuation. Kalshi closed a $1 billion Series E funding round, lifting its valuation to $11 billion. Both platforms have aggressively expanded their market access: Polymarket re-entered the U.S. market in November 2025 after acquiring the CFTC-regulated QCEX, while Kalshi integrated with Robinhood to tap into its over 27 million funded accounts. Polymarket also strengthened its visibility through a strategic partnership with X (formerly Twitter).
Polymarket has officially confirmed plans to launch its native POLY token alongside a large-scale community airdrop, aimed at decentralizing the platform. Early projections suggest between 5% and 10% of the total token supply could be distributed to users, with some analyst estimates valuing the allocation pool at up to $750 million. Eligibility is expected to reward active trading volume and consistent participation.
Looking ahead, trademark filings and developer signals suggest Polymarket may be considering launching its own dedicated blockchain network, either a Layer 2 or full Layer 1, to optimize for speed and cost. Despite this growth, regulatory friction persists in some U.S. states like Nevada and Massachusetts, where prediction markets face scrutiny under gambling frameworks.
