Analysts at Standard Chartered have reaffirmed their long-term forecast that the stablecoin market will reach a valuation of $2 trillion by the end of 2028. This bullish outlook persists despite the bank revising down its projection for fresh U.S. Treasury bill (T-bill) demand generated by stablecoin reserves from a previous estimate of $1.6 trillion to a new range of $0.8 to $1 trillion over the same period.
The report, authored by analyst Geoffrey Kendrick and US rates strategist John Davies, highlights that major stablecoin issuers like Tether (USDt/USDT) and Circle (USDC) are on track to become some of the largest buyers of short-term U.S. government debt. The analysts note that the current stablecoin market capitalization has stalled around $300-$320 billion amid a broader crypto downturn but view this as a cyclical, not structural, issue.
The passage of the U.S. GENIUS Act in 2025 is cited as a key regulatory development supporting this growth trajectory. The analysts point to statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in early February, who suggested the Act could become "an important feature of financing the U.S. government."
Standard Chartered suggests this burgeoning demand from the private sector, combined with the Federal Reserve's recent decision to conduct reserve management purchases (RMPs) and replace maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with T-bills, could lead to a scarcity of T-bills. The Treasury's latest quarterly refunding announcement also referenced "growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector," which the bank interprets as including stablecoin-related demand.
To accommodate this potential supply-demand imbalance, the report speculates the U.S. Treasury might increase T-bill issuance and could even temporarily pause its 30-year bond auctions for several years.
In related cryptocurrency forecasts, Standard Chartered has recently adjusted its Bitcoin outlook, lowering its 2026 price target from $150,000 to $100,000 and projecting a potential dip to $50,000 before a recovery. The bank maintains a long-term Bitcoin price target of $500,000 by the end of 2028.
