XRP is facing a pivotal moment as technical breakdowns and surging bearish sentiment in derivatives markets clash with on-chain signals of strong investor accumulation. According to analysis from CoinCodex and BeInCrypto, the altcoin has experienced a steady intraday decline from the $1.45 zone and has confirmed a bearish head-and-shoulders breakdown on the 8-hour chart. This pattern projects a potential downside target near $1.12, representing a 20% decline from the neckline.
The token is currently holding near the critical $1.38–$1.40 support zone, a key short-term floor. A decisive drop below $1.38 could push XRP toward $1.35, signaling intensified seller momentum. Conversely, a defended floor could trigger a relief bounce toward $1.42 or higher.
Futures market data reveals heightened bearish positioning. Open interest, which measures the total value of active contracts, has surged to 1.66 billion XRP (approximately $774.42 million), indicating strong trader conviction. Funding rates have turned highly negative at -0.019%, up over 600% from earlier levels, meaning short sellers are paying to maintain their bearish bets.
However, on-chain metrics paint a contradictory picture of underlying strength. Exchange net position change data shows a 23% increase in XRP outflows over five days, reaching 78.38 million XRP by February 22. This signals accumulation into private wallets for longer-term holding rather than selling. Furthermore, the cohort of mid-term holders (3-6 months) has increased its supply share from 10% to 15.86% over the past month—a near 60% increase—demonstrating strong conviction among experienced investors.
Cost basis distribution data identifies a major accumulation cluster between $1.27 and $1.28, where over 444 million XRP has been accumulated, creating a potentially powerful support zone. The immediate technical resistance sits at $1.39, with a reclaim of $1.46 potentially triggering a significant short squeeze.
