Analytics firm Santiment reports that Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market has plunged to its weakest level since November 2022, following the FTX collapse. Historically, Bitcoin has often moved in tandem with equities, particularly the S&P 500. However, a sharp divergence has emerged over the past six months.
While the S&P 500 has gained 7% and Gold has surged an incredible 51% over the last six months, Bitcoin has fallen 43% since late August 2025. This creates a significant performance gap and indicates assets are moving in opposite directions. Santiment notes that instead of moving alongside equities, "Bitcoin has sharply underperformed while traditional markets have remained stable and gold has thrived."
The decoupling extends beyond stocks. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju highlighted that Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with Gold has plummeted into negative territory since the last quarter of 2025. A negative correlation implies the assets are moving inversely. "Bitcoin is in a 'not digital gold' period," stated Young Ju, challenging the popular narrative of Bitcoin as a digital safe-haven asset.
Some community analysts view this as a potential capital rotation opportunity, recalling that a similar decorrelation post-FTX in late 2022 preceded Bitcoin doubling the following year. However, others argue the decoupling shows investors are treating Bitcoin as a risky tech stock to be sold during uncertainty, while flocking to traditional gold.
On-chain data reveals a shift in holder behavior. From mid-2025 to early 2026, spikes in Dormant Circulation and Age Consumed showed long-dormant coins becoming active, paired with a declining Mean Coin Age. However, as 2026 began, this activity transitioned from panic-like spikes to steadier, periodic movements, suggesting strategic redistribution by experienced holders rather than mass exits.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $66,000, down 2% over the past week and 48% below its October 2025 all-time high of $124,500. Despite the price struggle, Bitcoin's market dominance remains steady at 58.52%.
