Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, has provided a detailed analysis addressing widespread speculation about why Bitcoin's price has not reached the $150,000 milestone despite massive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. In a series of posts on X, Park refuted viral theories suggesting firms like Jane Street are deliberately capping Bitcoin's price through coordinated selling at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.
Park argues the "villain" is not a single firm but the structural architecture of the Bitcoin ETF itself. He explains that Authorized Participants (APs), the large institutions that create and redeem ETF shares, operate within a "grey window" of Regulation SHO. This exemption allows them to maintain positions with a level of capital efficiency that Park describes as "indistinguishable from a regulatory arbitrage."
The core of Park's explanation centers on how APs hedge their exposure. Typically, an arbitrageur would buy spot Bitcoin to close a price gap between the ETF and the underlying asset. However, if an AP chooses to hedge using Bitcoin futures instead of buying the spot asset, the "spot was never bought." This breaks the direct link between ETF demand and spot price appreciation on public exchanges.
Furthermore, the recent regulatory transition to "in-kind" redemptions has removed a key mechanism that previously forced spot buying. APs can now source Bitcoin through private over-the-counter (OTC) desks, which has minimal impact on public exchange order books where price discovery occurs. This shift effectively mutes the buying pressure that investors expected from ETF inflows.
Park also addressed the specific 10 a.m. ET price movement theory, stating there is no evidence of coordinated price suppression. He attributes observed volatility to normal market dynamics: the U.S. stock market opens at 9:30 a.m., leading to a surge in trading volume, portfolio rebalancing, and institutional activity. Given Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500, equity-driven flows naturally spill into crypto around that time.
Park concludes that while no firm is explicitly manipulating the market, the current regulatory framework—designed for traditional assets—is fundamentally at odds with Bitcoin's nature. The result is a system where the mechanics of ETF trading may be muting the explosive price growth many investors anticipated.
