Prominent cryptocurrency analysts are issuing stark warnings about Bitcoin's price trajectory, with predictions of a potential crash to levels as low as $30,000-$40,000 before a market bottom is established, likely in the final quarter of 2026.
Expert trader Tony Severino, who previously correctly predicted Bitcoin's market top, raised the possibility of a dramatic decline to $4,000. In an X post, Severino questioned whether the next Bitcoin bull market would be a "lower high followed by a lower low." His analysis points to a potential Head-and-Shoulders chart pattern forming, which could trigger such a severe crash. He urged traders to "play the range and cycles." While speculative on an exact bottom, Severino noted Bitcoin is "bottoming now on shorter timeframes" but on longer timeframes, it "could still take a while." He recently stated he expects a maximum drawdown of around 72% this cycle, implying a bottom near $34,000.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also predicted a drop to around $40,000 before Bitcoin finds a bottom. This bearish sentiment is reinforced by on-chain data. Analytics platform Glassnode noted that profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70,000 threshold, a pattern consistent with a "thin-liquidity regime" where even modest selling can suppress recovery attempts.
Crypto analyst Willy Woo provided a detailed framework, warning that Bitcoin has only existed in a secular global macro bull market from 2009 to 2026. If this macro environment breaks down, he identifies $30,000 as a key fallback support level, with $16,000 as the final line to maintain BTC's long-term bull trend. Woo believes a more typical bear-market bottom would be $45,000. He suggests the recent bearish sell-off may be exhausted, allowing for sideways consolidation, but any rebound to the mid-$70,000 range would likely be rejected due to a "heavily bearish" broader regime with deteriorating spot and futures liquidity. Woo predicts Q4 2026 could mark the end of the bearish trend, with bullish momentum potentially returning in Q1 or Q2 of 2027.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant supports the extended downturn thesis. Analysts point out that "bottoms take time" to form and, based on post-halving price structures, cycle lows could arrive between "June and December" 2026, with a historical "sweet spot" around September–November. The Bitcoin "supply in profit" metric has dropped to levels last seen during the depths of the 2022 bear market. Overlaying the 2022 price action suggests Bitcoin could see a -70% to -75% drawdown, potentially bottoming between $31,500 and $38,000 roughly six months from now.
Further bearish signals come from rising exchange reserves. Data shows Bitcoin balances on exchanges have grown to 2.752 million BTC from 2.723 million in mid-January, a 1.0% increase. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated, "Until the reserve turns lower and breaks back below 2.723M BTC, structural selling pressure remains intact." A sustained decline below January lows is seen as a key trigger for a regime change.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $65,950, down 5.5% from a recent high of $70,000, struggling to reclaim key support levels like the Long-Term Holder True Cost Basis at $65,700.
