Renowned analyst Lyn Alden has provided a nuanced assessment of the current Bitcoin market, highlighting a significant divergence between institutional progress and weak retail interest. Alden noted that while Bitcoin outperformed expectations in 2024 by surpassing $100,000, its failure to reach the 2025 target of $150,000 and its current price of around $126,000 was "disappointing." She argued that the four-year halving cycle is no longer a definitive law of nature and that the biggest shortcoming of this cycle is the lack of individual investor participation, with demand confined to a narrow area of institutions and ETFs.
Alden pointed to a record high in the amount of Bitcoin that hasn't moved in over five years, countering the narrative of veteran investors selling. She stated that those selling are typically family-owned investors taking profits due to excessively large portfolios, a statistical result of the asset's 17-year history rather than a loss of faith in Bitcoin. Alden predicts the current bear market may be shorter than previous cycles, with the market forming a base by trading sideways. She believes Bitcoin's next major bull run will begin when it is "worn out and considered dead" by everyone, but under the control of powerful hands.
This analysis aligns with recent on-chain data showing significant accumulation despite price pressure. Glassnode data reveals that over the past three weeks, 'old supply'—wallets holding BTC dormant for at least six months—has increased by 188,000 BTC, valued at over $12.75 billion. This suggests seasoned investors are holding rather than selling into weakness. Furthermore, Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded significant inflows, attracting a combined $1.02 billion between February 24 and 26, indicating renewed institutional demand.
Prominent analyst Willy Woo offered a sobering but detailed outlook, suggesting the recent wave of selling pressure may be exhausted, allowing Bitcoin to consolidate sideways for about a month. He predicts a potential brief rebound to the mid-$70,000 range, which would likely be rejected due to deteriorating liquidity in both spot and futures markets. Woo projected the current bearish trend could persist well into the year, with a potential turning point in Q4 2026, and a return of bullish momentum in Q1 or Q2 2027. He estimated a bear market bottom could be around $45,000, with $30,000 and $16,000 as deeper fallback support levels in a severe global macro breakdown.
