A stark divergence in Bitcoin price predictions has emerged from technical analysts, with one forecasting a surge to $500,000 by 2028 and another warning of a potential crash to $52,000 in the near term.
Analyst Egrag Crypto's $500,000 Bull Case hinges on the reappearance of a specific moving average ribbon pattern on Bitcoin's monthly chart. The pattern involves the 33 EMA, 66 MA, 80 EMA, and 100 EMA compressing and beginning to expand—a configuration that has historically signaled major cycle transitions into expansion phases. The analyst characterizes this as a fractal, indicating structural similarity to past bull cycles.
Based on historical expansion multiples following similar patterns, Egrag outlines an intermediate target near $150,000 and an ultimate upper boundary of $500,000. The forecast incorporates a defined timeline, pointing to October 2026 as a key waypoint for a continuation phase, with a final peak projected around Q3 or Q4 of 2028, potentially aligning with macro narratives like election cycles.
In contrast, analyst Tara warns that Bitcoin's fifth corrective wave may not be complete. Technical analysis points to a major support zone between $59,900 and $60,500, based on a double bottom formation and Fibonacci levels. While a bounce from this area could drive the price back to test $64,400 as resistance, Tara cautions that a final push lower could extend to $52,000 to complete the broader wave structure, marking a worst-case scenario.
Tara advises traders to watch for bullish divergence on the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) during any further drop as a potential sign of the correction ending. At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $68,220, with the $64,000 level identified as a critical pivot. Reclaiming it would aid a bullish reversal, while a drop below could expose the $60,500 support.
