Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo has issued a significant Bitcoin price prediction, warning that the current market downturn could find its bottom at approximately $45,000. Woo's analysis, shared in late February 2026, suggests Bitcoin may experience a brief rebound to around $75,000 and trade sideways for about a month, but he expects this level to be rejected due to deteriorating market conditions.
Woo's methodology relies on sophisticated blockchain metrics rather than traditional price charts, examining network activity, investor behavior, and capital flows. He specifically points to the simultaneous deterioration of both spot and futures liquidity as a critical bearish signal. "I've never seen BTC rally when both sources of liquidity are bearish," Woo stated, highlighting the uniqueness of the current environment.
The analyst outlines a tiered support framework: $45,000 as the base case with a high probability, $30,000 as a moderate stress scenario if global macroeconomic conditions worsen, and $16,000 as a severe crisis level in the event of a macroeconomic collapse. He notes that Bitcoin has only existed during a global macro bull market (2009-2026), making a potential breakdown uncharted territory.
The timeline for recovery is extended. Woo expects the bearish trend to begin fading in Q4 2026, with a bullish trend potentially returning in Q1 or Q2 of 2027. This aligns with Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle and indicates a prolonged consolidation period.
Other analysts echo the cautious outlook. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also predicted a Bitcoin drop, targeting $42,000, which aligns with the 200-week moving average. Market data from Glassnode shows profit-taking is draining momentum near the $70,000 level, with even small sell events pushing the price down in the current thin liquidity environment. At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $67,800.
In contrast, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan holds a more optimistic view, believing selling pressure has eased and that the market may be forming a bottom, with new all-time highs still possible. Woo emphasizes that his predictions represent probabilistic scenarios, requiring continuous monitoring of evolving market conditions, including Federal Reserve policy, regulatory developments, and institutional investment flows.
