Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has presented a historically grounded framework for Bitcoin, suggesting its current price action is following a pattern observed across every major market cycle. The analysis centers on Bitcoin's relationship with the 33-week exponential moving average (EMA), which has provided a consistent structural signal over four complete cycles.
The established pattern is straightforward: Bitcoin breaks below the 33 EMA, spends a defined period consolidating beneath it to form a base, and then reclaims the level. This reclaim triggers the beginning of a major expansion phase. Historical data shows the consolidation period below the 33 EMA has lasted between 120 to 180 days, averaging around 151 days—roughly five months of base-building before the upside move begins.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin has confirmed the first step by breaking below the 33 EMA. However, the critical "time reset" component has not yet occurred. According to EGRAG CRYPTO, the market is in the early-to-middle portion of this reset period. A premature reclaim of the 33 EMA before this time component resolves would represent a deviation from the four-cycle historical rhythm.
The analyst outlines two potential scenarios. The first follows the historical script: Bitcoin completes the full consolidation period, builds a structural base, and then reclaims the 33 EMA with conviction. This scenario would target an expansion phase reaching $200,000 to $250,000, consistent with the magnitude of moves following prior reclaims.
The second scenario is a "curveball": a V-shaped recovery where Bitcoin reclaims the 33 EMA directly from its current position without the typical extended consolidation. This outcome would break the established pattern but would not necessarily negate a bullish thesis; it would simply arrive on a compressed timeline without the historical foundation for sustained expansion.
EGRAG CRYPTO emphasizes that four cycles of consistent behavior provide a meaningful, though not guaranteed, framework for interpreting current price action. The resolution of this pattern will determine whether a move toward the $200,000-$250,000 target is approached from a position of structural strength or through a deviation that introduces more uncertainty into the timeline.
