Prominent cryptocurrency trader DonAlt, known for accurately predicting a 700% rally for XRP in 2024-2025, has shifted to a cautiously optimistic stance on Bitcoin. He suggests that despite negative macroeconomic news, Bitcoin could see a corrective rebound toward the $80,000 level without requiring a full reversal into a confirmed bull market.
DonAlt's analysis hinges on Bitcoin finding strong weekly support around $67,500. He notes that recent negative catalysts, such as Producer Price Index (PPI) data and global geopolitical tensions, have been largely disregarded by the market, indicating potential resilience. In a post on X, he stated, "Bad news, decent response... Maybe time for some up for at least a little bit, we have room up to $80k without flipping bullish." This move would represent a gain of nearly 20% from current levels. DonAlt clarifies he is not becoming a full-scale buyer but believes the intense selling pressure may abate, making selling at current support levels irrational.
In a separate but related analysis, Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology firm Jan3, argues that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued relative to gold and the global money supply. He claims Bitcoin is 24% to 66% below its long-term trend compared to these benchmarks, while gold is "overextended." Mow points to the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio's Z-score, a statistical measure of how far a data point is from the mean.
Historically, when this Z-score has dropped below -2, Bitcoin has experienced major price rallies. The metric fell below -3 during the FTX collapse in November 2022, preceding a 150%+ rally over the next year. A similar pattern occurred during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, after which Bitcoin surged over 300% in 12 months. At the time of Mow's analysis, the Z-score was approximately -1.24, suggesting room for a move toward the critical -2 threshold that has preceded past bull runs.
This contrarian bullish outlook contrasts with other analysts who foresee further downside, with some predicting a drop toward $50,000 due to investor uncertainty and geopolitical risks, mirroring aspects of the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin recently fell to a low near $60,000 before recovering to around $66,400.
