Prominent crypto analyst Doctor Profit has outlined a six-stage framework for Bitcoin price action, placing BTC currently in Stage 4 of a bear market. Concurrently, a new quantitative model, the "Akiba Cycle Model v2," projects a cycle low near $35,000 by December 2026.
Doctor Profit's framework, based on observing past bull and bear markets, identifies recurring patterns driven by liquidity mechanics, leverage positioning, and human behavior. He states Bitcoin recently completed Stage 3, characterized by a rapid, brutal downside move confirming the bear market, often exceeding a 50% drawdown from all-time highs.
Currently, in Stage 4, the market is experiencing "dehydration, depression, and perfect liquidity creation." This phase is marked by prolonged, exhausting sideways price movement within a defined range. The analyst anticipates a breakdown from this range will lead to Stage 5, the "true capitulation phase," within a few months. He expects this stage to see Bitcoin bottom in the $35,000 to $40,000 price range.
This forecast aligns with the independent "Akiba Cycle Model v2," which uses a 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulation based on data from Bitcoin's four prior halving cycles. The model projects a 72.5% drawdown from the cycle high of $126,219, centering the implied cycle-low price distribution in the mid-$30,000s. The median simulated low is approximately $34,700, with a likely range (P10–P90) of $33,900 to $35,500.
Regarding timing, the model estimates the cycle low will occur roughly 980 days after the April 2024 halving, pointing to December 2026, with a window from November 2026 to January 2027. The model's backtest, trained on the first three cycles to predict the fourth, showed high accuracy for drawdown (0.7 percentage point gap) and timing (6-day gap), but underpredicted the recovery multiple by 38%.
The model treats the recovery leg—the multiple from the cycle low to the next halving price—as the least stable component. For the next cycle (H5), the central estimate for the halving price is $172,000, but with a very wide P10–P90 range from $60,000 to $489,000. The simulation also indicates a 64.4% probability that the H5 halving price will exceed the previous cycle high of $126,219.
Both analyses acknowledge limitations. Doctor Profit's framework is based on behavioral and market structure observations. The quantitative model is constrained by only four historical cycles and does not account for new regime variables like ETF flows, custody structure, or macro-economic factors such as interest rates.
