Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has identified a group of six wallets that collectively profited approximately $1.2 million by correctly predicting U.S. military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026. The wallets, described as "suspected insiders," were largely created and funded within 24 hours of the attack and purchased "Yes" shares on the Polymarket contract "U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?" just hours before explosions were reported.
The precision of the trades is striking. One account purchased over 560,000 "Yes" shares at roughly 10.8 cents each, turning about $60,800 into nearly $560,000. Another wallet bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, generating a six-figure gain. Bubblemaps noted these accounts had no prior trading history, and a visual cluster map showed they were funded through similar paths.
The military action was confirmed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who announced "major combat operations" targeting Iran's infrastructure. The news triggered immediate market reactions: Bitcoin's price fell from $66,000 to $63,000 within minutes, while oil futures on Hyperliquid rose. The related Polymarket contract saw nearly $90 million in volume, part of over $529 million wagered across similar markets since December.
This incident amplifies ongoing regulatory debates. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned that insider trading on event contracts may violate U.S. law. Rival platform Kalshi has suspended and fined users for similar violations and is investigating over 200 cases. Kalshi's CEO noted that regulated markets are barred from offering "war markets."
This is not an isolated case. Earlier this year, a new account profited over $400,000 betting on Venezuelan political developments, and wallets were identified betting on the outcome of the ZachXBT/Axiom investigation before it was public. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has previously defended informed traders, arguing they aid price discovery. However, as volumes in geopolitical contracts swell, the tension between informed trading and unlawful insider activity is coming under increased regulatory scrutiny.
