On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. published an updated reading of the Bitcoin NUPL-MVRV Harmonic Composite on March 7, 2026, placing the current market cycle in an intermediate phase. The composite reading of 0.33 sits well above the historical cyclical bottom zone near -0.50, suggesting the market has moved past the deepest capitulation phases but has not yet entered euphoric top conditions.
The NUPL-MVRV Harmonic Composite combines two key on-chain valuation metrics. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss) measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss across all Bitcoin holders as a proportion of market capitalization. MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compares Bitcoin's current market cap to the aggregate cost basis of all coins in circulation. By combining them, the composite smooths out individual metric noise to provide a clearer signal for cycle positioning.
The analyst's chart, spanning from 2013 to early 2026, shows the composite index in orange and red. Historical cycle tops are represented by a green shaded zone above 0.80, while cycle bottoms are shown in a pink shaded zone below zero. Prior cycle bottoms are visible as deep red and pink spikes below zero in 2015, 2019, and 2022, each dipping to -0.50 or lower before the subsequent bull market began.
A notable observation is an upward shift in cycle lows over time. The 2015 bottom was the most severe, followed by a less severe dip in 2019, and an even milder one in 2022. This pattern suggests each successive capitulation extreme has been less intense than the last. If this trend continues, the next cyclical bottom may not reach the historical -0.50 threshold at all, potentially bottoming at a level like -0.20.
With the current reading at 0.33, the market is positioned roughly halfway between the neutral zero line and the historical top zone. This aligns with a mid-cycle environment where the market has recovered from its lows but has not entered the final, greed-driven phase that precedes market peaks. As Axel Adler Jr. notes, this indicates a market in transition between the fear of the prior correction and the greed of the next peak, with no clear catalyst yet determining the next directional move.
