Bitcoin's price has experienced a dramatic correction, plummeting over 52% from its October 2025 all-time high of more than $126,000 to a low of $60,000 in early February 2026. This decline was exacerbated by escalating geopolitical tensions, including a direct military conflict between the USA, Israel, and Iran, which pushed BTC to local lows. However, the asset has since rebounded, rallying to a monthly peak of $74,000 and stabilizing around $70,000, marking a recovery of more than 15% from its February low.
In an effort to gauge market sentiment, analysts consulted two major AI models, ChatGPT and Gemini, on whether Bitcoin has bottomed in this cycle. ChatGPT framed the 50%+ decline as "very normal for Bitcoin bull-cycle corrections" and not indicative of a deep bear market. It assigned a 45% probability that the $60,000 low was the cycle bottom, citing the completion of a typical mid-cycle shakeout, improved liquidity, sentiment, and strong buyer interest at those levels. If this is the bottom, ChatGPT predicts a surge to $90,000, a break above $100,000, and a subsequent "parabolic phase" potentially driving Bitcoin to a new all-time high between $180,000 and $220,000 in 2026.
Gemini largely concurred, noting that momentum indicators and Bitcoin's distance from its 200-day moving average during the February low reached oversold levels not seen since the 2022 bear market or the FTX collapse, suggesting that "the selling pressure simply exhausted itself."
Both AIs, however, acknowledged potential downside risks. Gemini pointed to a shaky macro environment where investors are rotating out of speculative tech stocks amid inflation concerns and geopolitical tension, dampening institutional appetite for risk-on assets. ChatGPT assigned a 20% chance to a "one last brutal flush" scenario that could drive Bitcoin to fresh lows between $48,000 and $52,000, with a slight probability of an extreme panic wick to $42,000.
Separately, a historical pattern analysis by analyst Crypto Tice adds another dimension to the bottom debate. The analysis notes that across Bitcoin's last three major cycles, the market bottom has formed approximately 23 months after each all-time high (ATH). With Bitcoin's ATH occurring in October 2025, the 23-month window for a potential bottom has just opened. Crypto Tice argues this is a structural pattern where downside momentum historically exhausts and the risk/reward ratio shifts favorably for buyers.
The analyst is careful to note that history does not guarantee future outcomes, especially given a current macro environment distinct from past cycles, featuring stagflation concerns, geopolitical pressures, and potential forced selling from corporate treasuries. The conclusion is not that the bottom is confirmed, but that the probabilistic window for it to form is now open.
