Amidst Bitcoin's recent price struggles and rising market panic, prominent analysts are pushing back against crash narratives, pointing to deeper macroeconomic signals and technical indicators that suggest a potential bottom may be forming. Bitcoin (BTC) has lost its footing near recent highs, trading slightly below $68,000 after pushing above $73,000 earlier in the week, adding fresh pressure to a shaky market.
Jack Mallers, featured in a Savvy Finance YouTube breakdown, argues the recent Bitcoin weakness may look worse on the surface than it actually is. His thesis centers on broader macro metrics that could matter more for Bitcoin's future than short-term price action. Mallers begins with the Federal Reserve balance sheet, noting that expansion has started after a long period of tightening, which matters because "Bitcoin has always been highly sensitive to global liquidity cycles."
Mallers also highlights the ISM Manufacturing PMI reading of 52.4, marking two straight months of expansion. He views this as evidence the business cycle may be turning upward, a phase that has often lined up with the early stage of a Bitcoin bull market. His analysis extends to structural economic weaknesses, pointing to white-collar job openings falling below COVID-period levels and close to post-global financial crisis territory, which he ties to the rapid rise of artificial intelligence and systemic financial leverage.
Mallers connects several macro stress points into one larger picture: war spending, higher oil prices, weaker housing demand, and a federal debt burden that looks increasingly difficult to manage. He emphasizes true U.S. interest expense as a share of tax receipts, concluding that "the system may eventually have to print more money because the alternatives look too painful." He also references Jamie Dimon's recent warning about parallels between current lending conditions and the period before the 2008 financial crisis.
On valuation, Mallers says Bitcoin near $65,000 is the most oversold it has ever been on an RSI basis, comparing the current setup with much darker periods in Bitcoin history including the Mt. Gox era decline and the brutal 2015 bear market.
Simultaneously, analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared a chart analysis arguing Bitcoin may be getting closer to a bottom. The chart, credited to @JamesEastonUK, combines Bitcoin price, the 1-month RSI, and the copper-to-gold ratio. The 1-month RSI reading has fallen back to the same zone seen during previous major bear market periods (2011–2012, 2015, 2018, and 2022), each of which came near major cycle bottoms.
Van de Poppe's main point is that people may be underestimating how advanced this correction already is, with Bitcoin already trading in the kind of zone where long-term bottoms start forming. The copper-to-gold ratio, a broad macro signal, has been in its longest downtrend since Bitcoin has existed. Van de Poppe argues that if this ratio starts reversing higher, it would point to a stronger business cycle and improving macro conditions that would likely support risk assets like Bitcoin through a slower, steadier recovery.
