Prediction market platform Kalshi Inc. is making its first international expansion outside the United States through a strategic partnership with XP Inc., Brazil's largest brokerage firm. The move marks a significant step in bringing event-based financial contracts to Latin America's largest retail trading market.
The partnership will introduce yes-or-no event contracts tied to key Brazilian economic indicators, including inflation rates and central bank interest rate decisions. Initially, these contracts will be available to Kalshi's existing U.S. investor base and select clients of XP in Brazil, with the rollout beginning through Clear Corretora, a brokerage brand owned by XP.
"We see Brazil the way the U.S. was years ago with prediction markets," said Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara in a Bloomberg interview. "It's our second country, so we will be able to go a lot faster than we did in the U.S. when starting." The expansion provides Kalshi access to Brazil's large retail investor base and active derivatives trading culture.
The timing coincides with Kalshi's remarkable growth trajectory. In October, the company announced it had raised $300 million in a Series D funding round, valuing the firm at $5 billion—a sharp increase from its $2 billion valuation just three months earlier during its Series C round. The company claims to have become "one of the fastest-growing technology companies in the United States, and the fastest-growing company outside of the AI industry," with trading volume growing 200x and user base expanding 20x in the past year alone.
Regulatory considerations remain a key factor. While Brazil currently lacks specific regulations governing prediction markets, the country's finance ministry is monitoring developments and has begun early discussions about the sector's growth. This expansion occurs against a backdrop of ongoing regulatory scrutiny in the United States, where several states have challenged event-based contracts resembling betting products, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission asserts jurisdiction over derivatives-structured prediction markets.
