Popular cryptocurrency analyst PlanB, the creator of the influential Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has released an updated outlook projecting a dramatic rise in Bitcoin's value. According to his analysis, the average price of Bitcoin during the current 2024-2028 market cycle could reach $500,000 per BTC.
The S2F model evaluates Bitcoin's scarcity by comparing its existing supply (stock) with the annual rate of new coin creation (flow). PlanB argues that the quadrennial halving events, which cut the mining reward in half, are a primary driver of price appreciation. His updated chart shows the S2F line making a significant jump post-2024, pointing toward a target range centered around half a million dollars.
PlanB supports his forecast with several key arguments. First, he points to the model's historical accuracy, noting that it successfully predicted Bitcoin's rise to $55,000 after the 2019 period when BTC traded below $4,000. Second, he highlights current undervaluation, suggesting that indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) show the market is not yet overheated, implying the current price near $67,000 is just the beginning of a larger upward trajectory.
However, the analyst acknowledges the model's limitations and the inherent uncertainty of markets. The S2F model has faced criticism for focusing solely on supply dynamics while not accounting for demand factors. PlanB stresses there is no guarantee, and the path to $500,000 will likely include significant volatility and deep drawdowns, as seen in previous cycles. He views the present moment as an "ultimate buying opportunity."
While PlanB's prediction has reignited bullish sentiment, not all analysts share this extreme optimism. Crypto analyst Bobby A, for instance, agrees Bitcoin has significant upside but sets a more conservative target between $200,000 and $250,000 by 2026 or 2027. He cautions that models like S2F should be viewed as broad, long-term frameworks rather than precise prediction tools.
