Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading below the $75,000 level for over a month, facing significant selling pressure despite strong institutional and whale accumulation. After falling below $75,000 on February 4, BTC recently touched $74,031 on regulatory optimism before pulling back to trade around $70,525. The cryptocurrency is now consolidating between $65,000 and $73,000, with analysts describing this as the "most frustrating stage of the cycle."
A substantial sell wall has formed at the $75,000 price point, suggesting that large holders are selling at these levels rather than continuing to accumulate, potentially believing the asset has reached a peak. This persists despite several bullish developments. Blockchain analytics from CryptoQuant show normalized order volumes for whale trades ($1M+) spiked this month, with whale holdings now at 3.204 million BTC—the highest accumulation since 2024. The Exchange Whale Ratio has also been declining, indicating reduced selling pressure from large traders.
Institutional inflows remain robust. Digital asset investment products recorded a second consecutive week of inflows at $619 million. This week, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have already totaled $418.03 million, led by BlackRock with $295.31 million. Bitcoin treasury company Strategy recently purchased $1.28 billion worth of Bitcoin. Cumulative March ETF inflows stand at $1.56 billion, demonstrating strong institutional conviction.
Geopolitical developments are influencing market dynamics. On Tuesday, Bitcoin surged past $71,000 after former US President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that the war between the US and Iran could end "very soon." This triggered a relief rally that sent oil prices down 11% in one hour. The recent drop in oil prices amid the US-Iran conflict and investor capital rotation from gold to digital assets have contributed to BTC's upward momentum. However, the US continues military actions in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has labeled US Silicon Valley companies "legitimate targets."
Market uncertainty persists around macroeconomic factors. Traders are cautious ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve announcement regarding interest rates and next month's inflationary data. The latter will factor in previous oil price surges to over $100/barrel, which could trigger short-term risk-off BTC sales.
Technical analysis suggests key levels to watch. A break above $72,000 with volume could target $75,000 to $80,000, while losing the $65,000 support level could open downside to $60,000. Nearly $300 million in short positions were liquidated as BTC broke through resistance during Tuesday's rally.
