Global oil prices surged above $100 per barrel on Thursday, March 12, 2026, as attacks on shipping and port closures in the Middle East intensified supply fears. Brent crude briefly topped $101.59 before settling around $98, marking a 6.6% daily gain, while West Texas Intermediate rose over 6% to $92.61. This spike follows earlier peaks near $120 earlier in the week.
The immediate catalyst was a series of disruptive events in the Persian Gulf. Two oil tankers were struck in Iraqi waters, resulting in at least one sailor's death and prompting Iraq to shut all its oil ports. Separately, Oman evacuated all vessels from its Mina Al Fahal export terminal as a precaution. The strategic Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, remains effectively closed, with Iran warning that no crude will pass through and reports emerging of Iranian-laid mines in the area. This closure has forced major Gulf producers, including Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, to cut output.
Compounding the supply crunch, China announced an immediate ban on refined fuel exports in March, with its top processors canceling agreed export cargoes. In response to the crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is coordinating a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, including 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, analysts like Neil Beveridge of Sanford C. Bernstein noted these releases are "nothing compared with the 20 million barrels" per day of disruption caused by the Hormuz closure.
The conflict, now in its thirteenth day, shows no clear end. Iran has stated any ceasefire would require guarantees from the U.S. and Israel not to strike again, terms Washington has not agreed to. Financial institutions are warning of severe consequences; Goldman Sachs cautioned that oil prices could exceed the 2008 peak of $147.50 if Hormuz flows remain restricted through March, while Iran itself has warned prices could more than double to $200 per barrel if the war escalates.
For cryptocurrency markets, the oil-driven turmoil introduces significant macro risks. While Bitcoin has held relatively steady near $70,000, analysts highlight that sustained high energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially forcing central banks to delay interest rate cuts. This scenario would tighten global financial liquidity, a key driver for risk assets like cryptocurrencies, and could trigger increased volatility for major digital assets including Bitcoin and XRP.
