Indonesia has blocked access to Polymarket after the crypto‑based prediction platform hosted wagers on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term. The move adds fresh momentum to a global wave of regulatory actions that treat real‑money event contracts as online gambling rather than legitimate forecasting tools.
The Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs, known as Komdigi, announced the restriction on May 23, 2026, classifying Polymarket as an illegal online gambling service. Director General of Digital Space Supervision Alexander Sabar stated, “The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia.” Komdigi also began tracing social media accounts linked to the platform and warned it would block promotional channels that might help users circumvent the ban.
The trigger was a Polymarket contract asking whether Prabowo would cease to be president by various dates in 2026. The market launched on May 20, 2026, and recorded about $46,000 in trading volume. Traders priced a 1% chance of an exit by May 31, 2% by June 30, and roughly 15% by December 31. Polymarket’s rules stated the contract would resolve to “Yes” if Prabowo stopped serving due to resignation, removal, detention, or any condition preventing him from performing the role.
Indonesia’s action follows a similar block in India, where authorities classified crypto‑based prediction markets under the 2025 gaming law. Other jurisdictions — including Argentina, Colombia, Romania, Singapore, China, Japan, and Thailand — have also restricted such platforms. In the United States, a Ninth Circuit panel recently refused to pause enforcement actions against Polymarket and Kalshi in Nevada and Washington, while federal lawmakers continue to probe user verification and insider‑trading controls.
For the crypto industry, the growing list of bans highlights that decentralization does not shield platforms from local laws. Governments can still use internet controls to block access and target related services, narrowing the operating space for DeFi prediction markets.
