Crypto analyst Joao Wedson has shared a technical analysis of the altcoin market using the 2-year moving average (2Y SMA) indicator, a critical reference point frequently used during bear cycles to determine bottom levels. Wedson highlighted that the 2Y SMA/2 level—obtained by dividing the 2-year moving average in half—has historically identified significant bottoming areas for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), BNB, and XRP.
Solana (SOL) has already reached the 2Y SMA/2 level, according to Wedson. He noted that SOL reached this level more quickly because it moved sideways for an extended period during the last bear market, despite rising over 3000% in the previous cycle and then consolidating for about two years.
TRON (TRX) presents a different picture. Wedson described TRX as one of the most resilient altcoins in the top 100, reacting differently to bear markets. He stated that TRX is still quite far from the 2Y SMA level and would need to fall by approximately 50% from its current price to approach it.
On the memecoin front, Dogecoin (DOGE) has also reached the 2Y SMA/2 level. Wedson indicated this suggests memecoins haven't seen as strong interest in the last bull cycle as they did in 2021, and DOGE is currently trading at deep lows.
Cardano (ADA) shows a weaker outlook. Wedson noted that ADA has been trading below the 2Y SMA/2 level for several weeks, with its price hovering near 2022 lows. He attributed this weak performance to Cardano's lagging behind the market and limited scalability in its ecosystem, leading to decreased project support.
Wedson also commented on other projects: Hyperliquid (HYPE) is a rare young project currently gaining strength; Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is exactly at the 2Y SMA level, with the market needing monitoring to see if it will retrace to the 2Y SMA/2 level; and Chainlink (LINK) showed a slight reaction after testing the 2Y SMA/2 level, confirming that long-term moving averages can act as strong support zones.
Separately, traders are identifying altcoins with potential for 20%+ returns this cycle. Shiba Inu (SHIB) shows exceptional momentum with increased trading volumes and social interaction. Ethereum (ETH) benefits from network upgrades improving scalability. Solana (SOL) continues to attract traders with its technical superiority. XRP demonstrates recovery potential based on regulatory progress. Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), while less mainstream, shows unusual market trends and high-yield speculative opportunities.
