On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has detailed how a recovery in Bitcoin's price is contingent on short-term holders (STHs) returning to a state of profitability. According to Glassnode, the Supply in Profit metric for Bitcoin STHs—which tracks the percentage of BTC supply held at a net unrealized gain by addresses that acquired tokens within the last 155 days—has remained below the critical 50% threshold. This indicates that a significant portion of recent buyers are currently holding their coins at a loss.
Glassnode emphasized that "Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%," and advised market watchers to "Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery." Historically, when this metric has flipped back above 50%, such as during the price rebound in the first half of 2025, it has preceded significant rallies and new all-time highs for Bitcoin.
In a separate but related analysis, data from CryptoQuant reveals a concerning shift in market momentum. The year-over-year growth rate of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price has turned negative for the first time since the 2022 bear market, currently reading at -2.4%. This metric measures the change in the average cost basis of coins bought within the last 155 days compared to a year ago. A negative reading signifies that newer buyers are, on average, sitting on losses relative to their entry prices from the prior year, reflecting contracting demand and weakening momentum.
The chart from CryptoQuant shows that similar negative readings occurred during the prolonged bear markets following the 2017 peak (2018-2019) and the 2021 peak (2022-2023). Both periods were characterized by extended price weakness before eventual recovery. The current negative reading suggests the short-term demand structure has weakened to a degree last seen in confirmed bear market conditions. For the indicator to recover, sustained accumulation by new buyers at higher price levels is required to push the cost basis growth rate back above zero.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was attempting to reclaim the $72,000 level following a 3% surge over the previous 24 hours, highlighting the ongoing tension between short-term price action and underlying on-chain weakness.
