The Bitcoin price correction from its all-time high of $126,230 on October 6, 2025, has now lasted 159 days, a period that feels prolonged to current holders but is historically insignificant. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost provided data showing that previous cycles saw much longer periods between peaks: 1,180 days after the 2017 high, 1,093 days after 2021, and 849 days after the 2025 cycle.
The 2025 cycle broke the historical pattern by producing a new ATH before a halving event, not after. Darkfost attributes this directly to the structural market change caused by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, which pulled institutional capital into Bitcoin ahead of schedule and disrupted the traditional halving-led cyclicality. He notes that the halving itself is not the main driver of new highs but rather its long-term effect of reducing miner sell pressure.
Concurrently, a potential regulatory shift is building that could have a profound impact. Under current Basel banking rules, Bitcoin carries a punitive 1,250% risk weight, making it "almost impossible for banks to offer services around BTC," as noted by Coinbureau CEO Nic. The Federal Reserve has announced a proposal on implementing these Basel rules in the U.S., opening a 90-day public comment window. While the proposal covers broader capital standards, it creates an opening to challenge Bitcoin's treatment.
"If Bitcoin’s treatment improves even slightly," Nic wrote, "it could open the door for banks to finally integrate BTC into the financial system. That’s a huge potential liquidity unlock." This potential change, alongside the existing ETF-driven structural shift, suggests the current correction, with Bitcoin trading at $70,689 (down 2.37% on the day), may resolve within a new, compressed cycle timeframe.
