Institutional investors are demonstrating remarkable resilience during Bitcoin's recent bear market, holding onto their positions despite a 50% price plunge, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. "The best evidence we have is in the ETF market," Hougan stated. He revealed that Bitcoin ETFs accumulated roughly $60 billion in net flows from their launch in January 2024 through October 2025. Since October 2025, prices have fallen by 50%, yet these ETFs have seen less than $10 billion in outflows.
"In other words, despite a punishing bear market, professional investors have proven to be 'diamond hands' in bitcoin," Hougan said. This data challenges the common criticism that institutional investors would be quick to sell during market stress. Hougan's firm, Bitwise, offers the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), which holds just under $3 billion in assets. The leading spot Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), manages over $55 billion.
Hougan emphasized that Bitcoin remains a "non-consensus asset," meaning institutions that allocate to it today take significant career risk and therefore possess unusually strong conviction. "They are not 51% convinced bitcoin is a good idea; they are 80% or 90% convinced. Otherwise, they wouldn't take the risk," he explained. This dynamic leads him to believe institutional capital will remain "very sticky" for the foreseeable future, even during volatile cycles.
This institutional behavior strengthens Hougan's long-term $1 million Bitcoin price prediction. He argues that Bitcoin only needs to become a "minor but material part" of the growing global store of value market to reach that target.
Supporting this thesis of a fundamental ownership shift, a research note from Wall Street broker Bernstein highlights that Bitcoin's recent price recovery reflects a stronger, longer-term holder base. Bernstein noted that Bitcoin outperformed gold and major equity indexes over the past week, with BTC rising approximately 7% and Ether gaining about 9%, despite heightened geopolitical tensions.
The analysts attribute this outperformance to continued inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and steady accumulation by corporate buyers like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). "Maybe it takes a physical conflict to realise Bitcoin remains the most portable (cross-border), digital and liquid asset with no counterparty risks," Bernstein stated.
Data shows a significant shift in ownership structure. Roughly 60% of Bitcoin's supply has been inactive for over a year, indicating dominance by long-term holders. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded three consecutive weeks of inflows totaling more than $2.1 billion, nearly reversing year-to-date outflows. Strategy has been aggressively accumulating, adding 66,231 BTC year-to-date worth approximately $5.6 billion. On March 9 alone, the company acquired 17,994 Bitcoin for $1.28 billion, pushing its total reserves above 738,000 BTC (worth roughly $54 billion).
Despite the rebound—with Bitcoin trading around $73,208 and on track for its first positive month since September 2025—market sentiment remains cautious. The crypto fear and greed index lingers in "extreme fear" territory, and perpetual futures funding rates are negative, suggesting traders are not yet fully convinced the downtrend has reversed.
