XRP is approaching a pivotal technical moment on its weekly chart, with price action compressing around the critical 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). According to a detailed chart analysis shared by prominent crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, this level has historically defined the asset's macro trend structure.
The analysis shows that XRP recently wickedly tested the 200 EMA before bouncing, initiating the formation of a tightening triangle pattern. This pattern, marked in yellow on the chart, represents a period of volatility compression following a prior strong upward impulse move. Such formations typically emerge as selling momentum fades and buyers absorb supply, setting the stage for a subsequent directional breakout.
EGRAG CRYPTO outlines two primary scenarios for XRP's next move. The first, assigned a roughly 40% probability, involves a brief liquidity sweep below the triangle structure. This could see price dip toward the $0.93–$0.80 range—a zone identified as a potential retracement and liquidity cluster—before reversing upward into an expansion phase.
The second and more probable scenario, estimated at 60%, anticipates a continuation of the compression within the triangle followed by an upward breakout aligned with the broader trend. Should this occur, the analysis identifies key upside targets near $2.20 and $3.20. The analyst emphasizes that triangle patterns forming after strong impulse moves often resolve in the direction of the larger trend.
For now, the 200 EMA remains the central level to monitor. The chart suggests that as long as XRP holds above this long-term moving average, the broader macro bullish structure may remain intact despite the ongoing consolidation. With volatility compressing and the triangle pattern nearing its resolution, the market is believed to be entering a "decision phase" that could soon trigger a decisive price move.
