Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, has declared that Ethereum's prolonged bear market has ended, asserting that the cryptocurrency has bottomed out and is poised to exit the "crypto winter." Lee presented his analysis at the 3rd Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong on March 13-14, basing his bullish outlook on historical market analogs and on-chain data.
The core of Lee's argument hinges on a technical analysis provided by legendary market timer Tom DeMark. DeMark's work identified a striking 93% correlation between Ethereum's recent price action and the S&P 500's recovery following the Black Monday crash of 1987. An 89% correlation was also found with the market bottom formed after the 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis. According to this analysis, if the 1987 analog holds, Ethereum's bottom occurred on March 7. If the 2011 comparison is more accurate, the market is bottoming now. In either scenario, Lee's conclusion is that Ethereum is at or past its cyclical low.
Lee supplemented the chart analysis with on-chain metrics, specifically Ethereum's realized price—the average acquisition cost of all coins based on their last movement on-chain. This figure currently stands at $2,241. With ETH trading around $2,147 at the time of his remarks, it represents a discount of approximately 22% below the average holder's cost basis.
"Currently, we're at 22%," Lee said, noting this level mirrors the 21% discount seen in 2025 before Ethereum's price turned higher. "So we're at the level where in 2025, Ethereum started to turn higher." He argued that such discounts have historically created strong buying opportunities and signaled trend exhaustion, suggesting the current setup is ripe for a reversal.
To provide long-term context, Lee highlighted Ethereum's decade-long performance, stating it has returned 49,000% over the past ten years, outperforming Bitcoin's 11,000% gain and even the stellar returns of Nvidia stock.
